Principal Demographic Assumptions — 2017 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, ^a
Calendar Years 1940-2095
Historical data:
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Age-sex-adjusted death rate ^c per 100,000, by age
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Total	Under 65	65 and over
1940	2.23	1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
1941	2.33	1,836.5	726.1	9,240.1
1942	2.55	1,776.7	703.0	8,935.3
1943	2.64	1,852.8	708.8	9,479.8
1944	2.49	1,763.8	685.6	8,952.5
1945	2.42	1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
1946	2.86	1,664.4	641.2	8,485.9
1947	3.18	1,668.3	619.0	8,663.7
1948	3.03	1,633.0	604.8	8,488.3
1949	3.04	1,583.3	585.3	8,237.3
1950	3.03	1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
1951	3.20	1,548.4	565.5	8,101.4
1952	3.29	1,518.8	558.8	7,919.5
1953	3.35	1,510.5	545.5	7,944.7
1954	3.46	1,433.4	514.9	7,557.2
1955	3.50	1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
1956	3.60	1,455.4	506.8	7,780.4
1957	3.68	1,481.6	516.6	7,916.0
1958	3.63	1,467.9	506.1	7,880.1
1959	3.64	1,440.8	499.2	7,719.3
1960	3.61	1,454.3	503.2	7,795.4
1961	3.56	1,420.8	488.0	7,640.2
1962	3.42	1,448.5	493.7	7,814.1
1963	3.30	1,472.5	501.3	7,947.7
1964	3.17	1,426.0	496.5	7,622.9
1965	2.88	1,428.8	495.2	7,653.3
1966	2.67	1,431.8	497.1	7,663.7
1967	2.53	1,393.6	488.5	7,427.9
1968	2.43	1,418.1	500.8	7,534.0
1969	2.42	1,374.2	491.7	7,258.0
1970	2.43	1,340.0	485.7	7,036.3
1971	2.25	1,332.9	472.5	7,068.9
1972	1.99	1,328.0	470.4	7,045.8
1973	1.86	1,309.2	463.0	6,951.3
1974	1.82	1,255.6	443.6	6,668.9
1975	1.77	1,204.8	426.6	6,393.6
1976	1.74	1,195.1	416.1	6,389.1
1977	1.80	1,160.6	405.7	6,193.7
1978	1.76	1,155.1	399.0	6,196.8
1979	1.82	1,116.4	386.2	5,984.8
1980	1.82	1,136.9	384.3	6,154.3
1981	1.80	1,105.7	374.7	5,979.0
1982	1.81	1,071.3	362.6	5,795.9
1983	1.78	1,085.0	357.7	5,934.4
1984	1.79	1,076.5	354.3	5,891.4
1985	1.83	1,081.0	353.3	5,932.9
1986	1.83	1,070.0	350.8	5,865.1
1987	1.86	1,079.3	347.3	5,959.7
1988	1.92	1,070.3	346.3	5,897.1
1989	2.00	1,040.8	340.5	5,710.0
1990	2.07	1,021.3	333.6	5,606.3
1991	2.06	1,007.7	329.8	5,527.6
1992	2.04	992.7	322.4	5,461.5
1993	2.02	1,016.4	325.3	5,624.3
1994	2.00	1,004.1	321.8	5,553.3
1995	1.98	1,001.5	317.9	5,559.5
1996	1.98	987.8	306.6	5,529.1
1997	1.97	971.9	293.3	5,496.4
1998	2.00	963.8	285.4	5,487.1
1999	2.01	970.6	283.2	5,553.6
2000	2.05	960.7	281.0	5,492.3
2001	2.03	951.1	280.4	5,422.8
2002	2.03	947.0	279.0	5,400.6
2003	2.05	933.4	277.2	5,308.6
2004	2.06	898.9	269.7	5,093.9
2005	2.06	901.3	270.7	5,105.4
2006	2.11	876.1	267.6	4,933.5
2007	2.12	856.8	261.6	4,825.2
2008	2.07	857.0	258.8	4,845.5
2009	2.00	827.1	255.3	4,639.7
2010	1.93	821.3	248.5	4,640.1
2011	1.89	819.3	249.1	4,621.4
2012	1.87	811.9	248.5	4,568.2
2013	1.85	811.9	249.2	4,563.6
2014	1.86	^d 805.4	251.1	^d 4,501.1
2015	1.84	^e 787.9	^e 243.2	^e 4,419.6
2016	^e 1.87	^e 779.8	^e 240.8	^e 4,373.7
Intermediate:
2017	1.90	772.1	238.3	4,330.8
2018	1.93	764.6	235.8	4,290.1
2019	1.96	757.3	233.3	4,251.3
2020	1.98	750.2	230.7	4,213.9
2021	2.01	743.3	228.2	4,177.8
2022	2.03	736.5	225.6	4,142.7
2023	2.05	729.8	223.1	4,108.5
2024	2.04	723.3	220.6	4,075.2
2025	2.03	716.9	218.1	4,042.5
2026	2.01	710.5	215.6	4,010.4
2027	2.00	704.3	213.1	3,978.9
2028	2.00	698.1	210.7	3,947.9
2029	2.00	692.1	208.3	3,917.5
2030	2.00	686.1	205.9	3,887.5
2031	2.00	680.2	203.6	3,858.0
2032	2.00	674.4	201.3	3,828.8
2033	2.00	668.7	199.0	3,800.2
2034	2.00	663.1	196.8	3,771.9
2035	2.00	657.5	194.6	3,743.9
2036	2.00	652.0	192.4	3,716.4
2037	2.00	646.6	190.2	3,689.3
2038	2.00	641.2	188.1	3,662.4
2039	2.00	636.0	186.0	3,636.0
2040	2.00	630.8	183.9	3,609.9
2041	2.00	625.6	181.9	3,584.1
2042	2.00	620.6	179.9	3,558.7
2043	2.00	615.6	177.9	3,533.6
2044	2.00	610.6	175.9	3,508.8
2045	2.00	605.8	174.0	3,484.3
2046	2.00	600.9	172.1	3,460.1
2047	2.00	596.2	170.2	3,436.2
2048	2.00	591.5	168.4	3,412.6
2049	2.00	586.9	166.6	3,389.3
2050	2.00	582.3	164.8	3,366.3
2051	2.00	577.8	163.0	3,343.6
2052	2.00	573.4	161.2	3,321.1
2053	2.00	569.0	159.5	3,298.9
2054	2.00	564.6	157.8	3,277.0
2055	2.00	560.4	156.1	3,255.3
2056	2.00	556.1	154.5	3,233.9
2057	2.00	551.9	152.8	3,212.8
2058	2.00	547.8	151.2	3,191.9
2059	2.00	543.7	149.6	3,171.3
2060	2.00	539.7	148.1	3,150.9
2061	2.00	535.7	146.5	3,130.7
2062	2.00	531.8	145.0	3,110.8
2063	2.00	527.9	143.5	3,091.0
2064	2.00	524.1	142.0	3,071.6
2065	2.00	520.3	140.5	3,052.3
2066	2.00	516.6	139.1	3,033.3
2067	2.00	512.9	137.7	3,014.5
2068	2.00	509.2	136.3	2,995.9
2069	2.00	505.6	134.9	2,977.5
2070	2.00	502.0	133.5	2,959.3
2071	2.00	498.5	132.1	2,941.3
2072	2.00	495.0	130.8	2,923.5
2073	2.00	491.6	129.5	2,905.9
2074	2.00	488.2	128.2	2,888.5
2075	2.00	484.8	126.9	2,871.3
2076	2.00	481.5	125.6	2,854.3
2077	2.00	478.2	124.4	2,837.4
2078	2.00	475.0	123.1	2,820.8
2079	2.00	471.7	121.9	2,804.3
2080	2.00	468.6	120.7	2,788.0
2081	2.00	465.4	119.5	2,771.9
2082	2.00	462.3	118.3	2,755.9
2083	2.00	459.3	117.2	2,740.1
2084	2.00	456.2	116.0	2,724.5
2085	2.00	453.2	114.9	2,709.0
2086	2.00	450.3	113.8	2,693.7
2087	2.00	447.3	112.7	2,678.6
2088	2.00	444.4	111.6	2,663.6
2089	2.00	441.5	110.5	2,648.8
2090	2.00	438.7	109.4	2,634.1
2091	2.00	435.9	108.4	2,619.5
2092	2.00	433.1	107.3	2,605.2
2093	2.00	430.4	106.3	2,590.9
2094	2.00	427.6	105.3	2,576.8
2095	2.00	425.0	104.3	2,562.8
Low-cost:
2017	1.93	788.2	243.0	4,423.1
2018	1.98	785.2	242.0	4,407.2
2019	2.02	782.1	240.9	4,391.0
2020	2.07	779.0	239.7	4,374.5
2021	2.11	775.8	238.5	4,358.0
2022	2.15	772.5	237.2	4,341.3
2023	2.18	769.2	236.0	4,324.5
2024	2.20	765.9	234.7	4,307.7
2025	2.20	762.6	233.4	4,290.8
2026	2.20	759.2	232.1	4,274.0
2027	2.20	755.9	230.8	4,257.2
2028	2.20	752.6	229.4	4,240.4
2029	2.20	749.3	228.1	4,223.7
2030	2.20	745.9	226.8	4,207.1
2031	2.20	742.6	225.5	4,190.5
2032	2.20	739.4	224.2	4,174.0
2033	2.20	736.1	222.9	4,157.6
2034	2.20	732.9	221.6	4,141.3
2035	2.20	729.6	220.4	4,125.1
2036	2.20	726.4	219.1	4,108.9
2037	2.20	723.2	217.8	4,092.9
2038	2.20	720.1	216.6	4,077.0
2039	2.20	716.9	215.3	4,061.2
2040	2.20	713.8	214.1	4,045.4
2041	2.20	710.7	212.9	4,029.8
2042	2.20	707.6	211.6	4,014.2
2043	2.20	704.5	210.4	3,998.8
2044	2.20	701.5	209.2	3,983.5
2045	2.20	698.4	208.0	3,968.2
2046	2.20	695.4	206.8	3,953.1
2047	2.20	692.5	205.7	3,938.1
2048	2.20	689.5	204.5	3,923.2
2049	2.20	686.5	203.3	3,908.3
2050	2.20	683.6	202.2	3,893.6
2051	2.20	680.7	201.0	3,879.0
2052	2.20	677.8	199.9	3,864.4
2053	2.20	675.0	198.8	3,850.0
2054	2.20	672.1	197.6	3,835.6
2055	2.20	669.3	196.5	3,821.4
2056	2.20	666.5	195.4	3,807.2
2057	2.20	663.7	194.3	3,793.1
2058	2.20	660.9	193.2	3,779.2
2059	2.20	658.2	192.1	3,765.3
2060	2.20	655.4	191.1	3,751.5
2061	2.20	652.7	190.0	3,737.8
2062	2.20	650.0	188.9	3,724.2
2063	2.20	647.3	187.9	3,710.6
2064	2.20	644.7	186.8	3,697.2
2065	2.20	642.0	185.8	3,683.8
2066	2.20	639.4	184.8	3,670.5
2067	2.20	636.8	183.7	3,657.4
2068	2.20	634.2	182.7	3,644.3
2069	2.20	631.6	181.7	3,631.2
2070	2.20	629.1	180.7	3,618.3
2071	2.20	626.5	179.7	3,605.4
2072	2.20	624.0	178.7	3,592.7
2073	2.20	621.5	177.8	3,580.0
2074	2.20	619.0	176.8	3,567.4
2075	2.20	616.5	175.8	3,554.8
2076	2.20	614.1	174.9	3,542.4
2077	2.20	611.6	173.9	3,530.0
2078	2.20	609.2	173.0	3,517.7
2079	2.20	606.8	172.0	3,505.5
2080	2.20	604.4	171.1	3,493.3
2081	2.20	602.0	170.2	3,481.2
2082	2.20	599.6	169.2	3,469.2
2083	2.20	597.3	168.3	3,457.3
2084	2.20	594.9	167.4	3,445.5
2085	2.20	592.6	166.5	3,433.7
2086	2.20	590.3	165.6	3,422.0
2087	2.20	588.0	164.7	3,410.3
2088	2.20	585.8	163.8	3,398.8
2089	2.20	583.5	163.0	3,387.3
2090	2.20	581.2	162.1	3,375.8
2091	2.20	579.0	161.2	3,364.5
2092	2.20	576.8	160.4	3,353.2
2093	2.20	574.6	159.5	3,342.0
2094	2.20	572.4	158.7	3,330.8
2095	2.20	570.2	157.8	3,319.8
High-cost:
2017	1.86	755.0	233.2	4,234.1
2018	1.88	742.6	229.0	4,167.1
2019	1.89	730.8	224.9	4,104.0
2020	1.90	719.4	220.7	4,044.1
2021	1.91	708.4	216.7	3,986.9
2022	1.91	697.7	212.6	3,932.1
2023	1.92	687.4	208.7	3,879.2
2024	1.90	677.4	204.8	3,828.2
2025	1.89	667.6	201.0	3,778.7
2026	1.88	658.1	197.2	3,730.7
2027	1.86	648.8	193.6	3,683.9
2028	1.85	639.7	190.0	3,638.5
2029	1.84	630.9	186.4	3,594.1
2030	1.83	622.2	183.0	3,550.8
2031	1.81	613.8	179.6	3,508.6
2032	1.80	605.6	176.3	3,467.2
2033	1.80	597.5	173.1	3,426.9
2034	1.80	589.6	170.0	3,387.4
2035	1.80	581.9	166.9	3,348.7
2036	1.80	574.3	163.9	3,310.9
2037	1.80	566.9	160.9	3,273.8
2038	1.80	559.7	158.1	3,237.5
2039	1.80	552.6	155.3	3,202.0
2040	1.80	545.7	152.5	3,167.1
2041	1.80	538.9	149.8	3,133.0
2042	1.80	532.3	147.2	3,099.5
2043	1.80	525.8	144.6	3,066.7
2044	1.80	519.4	142.1	3,034.6
2045	1.80	513.1	139.7	3,003.0
2046	1.80	507.0	137.3	2,972.0
2047	1.80	501.0	134.9	2,941.6
2048	1.80	495.1	132.6	2,911.8
2049	1.80	489.3	130.4	2,882.6
2050	1.80	483.7	128.2	2,853.8
2051	1.80	478.1	126.0	2,825.6
2052	1.80	472.7	123.9	2,797.9
2053	1.80	467.4	121.9	2,770.7
2054	1.80	462.1	119.9	2,744.0
2055	1.80	457.0	117.9	2,717.7
2056	1.80	451.9	116.0	2,692.0
2057	1.80	447.0	114.1	2,666.6
2058	1.80	442.1	112.2	2,641.7
2059	1.80	437.4	110.4	2,617.2
2060	1.80	432.7	108.6	2,593.2
2061	1.80	428.1	106.9	2,569.5
2062	1.80	423.6	105.2	2,546.3
2063	1.80	419.1	103.5	2,523.4
2064	1.80	414.8	101.9	2,500.9
2065	1.80	410.5	100.3	2,478.7
2066	1.80	406.3	98.7	2,457.0
2067	1.80	402.2	97.2	2,435.5
2068	1.80	398.1	95.7	2,414.5
2069	1.80	394.1	94.2	2,393.7
2070	1.80	390.2	92.7	2,373.3
2071	1.80	386.3	91.3	2,353.2
2072	1.80	382.5	89.9	2,333.4
2073	1.80	378.8	88.6	2,313.9
2074	1.80	375.1	87.2	2,294.7
2075	1.80	371.5	85.9	2,275.7
2076	1.80	368.0	84.6	2,257.1
2077	1.80	364.5	83.4	2,238.7
2078	1.80	361.0	82.1	2,220.7
2079	1.80	357.7	80.9	2,202.8
2080	1.80	354.3	79.7	2,185.3
2081	1.80	351.1	78.5	2,168.0
2082	1.80	347.8	77.4	2,150.9
2083	1.80	344.7	76.3	2,134.1
2084	1.80	341.5	75.2	2,117.5
2085	1.80	338.4	74.1	2,101.1
2086	1.80	335.4	73.0	2,085.0
2087	1.80	332.4	72.0	2,069.1
2088	1.80	329.5	70.9	2,053.4
2089	1.80	326.6	69.9	2,037.9
2090	1.80	323.7	68.9	2,022.6
2091	1.80	320.9	68.0	2,007.5
2092	1.80	318.2	67.0	1,992.7
2093	1.80	315.4	66.1	1,978.0
2094	1.80	312.7	65.1	1,963.5
2095	1.80	310.1	64.2	1,949.2

^a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
^b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
^c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
^d Estimated.
^e Estimated, intermediate alternative.