Table 4 -- DeMint: Sensitivity -- IA/Annuity Yields at Expected Treasury Bond Yield
Benefit Offset 100.0% Ultimate
IA Contribution = 5.1%
With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate 3.0
With Ultimate Real IA Net Yield Rate of: 2.75
With Offset Annuity Net Yield Rate of: 2.75
Year
Cost
Rate 1
Income
Rate
Annual
Balance
Cash
Trust
Fund
Ratio 2
1-1-Year
Percent of
IA Assets
in Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
0n 12/31
Effective
OASDI
Contribution
Rate
Cash Flow
to the
General
Fund
(see
Table 1c--
Billions
of Current
Dollars)
Net
Purchase
of Social
Security
Transition
Bonds
by IAs 3
Change in OASDI
Contribution Rate from--
IA
Contribution
Transfer
from
General
Fund
2003
10.89
12.70
1.81
288
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2004
10.82
12.69
1.88
309
 
12.40
 
 
 
 
2005
10.73
8.41
-2.32
330
35
8.11
-40
1.50
4.29
 
2006
10.65
8.16
-2.50
326
35
7.85
-47
1.58
4.55
 
2007
10.67
8.08
-2.58
320
35
7.77
-53
1.61
4.63
 
2008
10.73
8.02
-2.71
312
35
7.69
-61
1.63
4.71
 
2009
10.84
7.96
-2.88
302
35
7.62
-74
1.65
4.78
 
2010
10.99
7.91
-3.07
290
35
7.55
-88
1.67
4.85
 
2011
11.16
7.91
-3.25
277
35
7.51
-104
1.68
4.89
 
2012
11.33
7.89
-3.44
263
35
7.47
-122
1.68
4.93
 
2013
11.54
7.87
-3.66
246
35
7.43
-144
1.67
4.97
 
2014
11.76
7.86
-3.89
228
35
7.40
-169
1.66
5.00
 
2015
11.99
7.85
-4.13
209
35
7.37
-197
1.64
5.03
 
2016
12.25
7.86
-4.39
187
35
7.36
-229
1.62
5.04
 
2017
12.52
7.87
-4.65
164
35
7.35
-265
1.60
5.05
 
2018
12.81
7.88
-4.92
140
35
7.34
-303
1.57
5.06
 
2019
13.08
9.80
-3.28
114
35
9.23
-344
1.54
5.07
1.90
2020
13.36
11.91
-1.45
100
35
11.33
-389
1.51
5.07
4.00
2021
13.65
12.23
-1.42
100
35
11.62
-439
1.47
5.08
4.30
2022
13.92
12.45
-1.47
100
35
11.82
-489
1.44
5.08
4.50
2023
14.14
12.77
-1.38
100
35
12.12
-538
1.40
5.08
4.80
2024
14.36
12.98
-1.37
100
35
12.31
-590
1.36
5.09
5.00
2025
14.55
13.20
-1.35
100
35
12.51
-643
1.31
5.09
5.20
2026
14.72
13.42
-1.30
100
35
12.71
-697
1.27
5.09
5.40
2027
14.87
13.53
-1.34
100
35
12.81
-752
1.22
5.09
5.50
2028
15.00
13.65
-1.35
100
35
12.91
-809
1.17
5.09
5.60
2029
15.10
13.77
-1.33
100
35
13.00
-864
1.12
5.10
5.70
2030
15.16
13.88
-1.28
100
35
13.10
-919
1.06
5.10
5.80
2031
15.20
13.99
-1.21
100
35
13.20
-972
1.01
5.10
5.90
2032
15.20
14.00
-1.20
100
35
13.20
-1,024
0.95
5.10
5.90
2033
15.18
14.01
-1.17
100
35
13.20
-1,074
0.89
5.10
5.90
2034
15.13
13.92
-1.21
100
35
13.10
-1,122
0.83
5.10
5.80
2035
15.06
13.93
-1.13
100
35
13.10
-1,169
0.77
5.10
5.80
2036
14.96
13.94
-1.02
100
35
13.10
-1,213
0.71
5.10
5.80
2037
14.84
13.84
-1.00
100
35
13.00
-1,256
0.65
5.10
5.70
2038
14.71
13.75
-0.96
100
35
12.90
-1,296
0.58
5.10
5.60
2039
14.56
13.65
-0.91
100
35
12.80
-1,334
0.52
5.10
5.50
2040
14.41
13.56
-0.85
100
35
12.70
-1,371
0.45
5.10
5.40
2041
14.25
13.46
-0.79
100
35
12.60
-1,409
0.38
5.10
5.30
2042
14.08
13.36
-0.72
100
35
12.50
-1,446
0.31
5.10
5.20
2043
13.92
13.27
-0.65
100
35
12.40
-1,484
0.24
5.10
5.10
2044
13.76
13.17
-0.59
100
35
12.30
-1,523
0.17
5.10
5.00
2045
13.60
13.17
-0.43
100
35
12.30
-1,564
0.09
5.10
5.00
2046
13.46
13.08
-0.38
100
35
12.20
-1,610
0.02
5.10
4.90
2047
13.31
12.98
-0.33
100
35
12.10
-1,656
-0.05
5.10
4.80
2048
13.17
12.89
-0.28
100
35
12.00
-1,703
-0.12
5.10
4.70
2049
13.01
12.79
-0.22
100
35
11.90
-1,748
-0.21
5.10
4.60
2050
12.86
12.80
-0.06
100
35
11.90
-1,797
-0.29
5.10
4.60
2051
12.73
12.81
0.07
100
35
11.90
-1,852
-0.36
5.10
4.60
2052
12.62
12.71
0.10
100
35
11.80
-1,913
-0.43
5.10
4.50
2053
12.54
12.82
0.28
100
35
11.90
-1,987
-0.49
5.10
4.60
2054
12.47
12.72
0.25
100
35
11.80
-2,065
-0.55
5.10
4.50
2055
12.41
12.73
0.32
100
35
11.80
-2,147
-0.60
5.10
4.50
2056
12.35
12.73
0.38
100
35
11.80
-2,234
-0.65
5.10
4.50
2057
12.29
12.74
0.45
100
35
11.80
-2,324
-0.70
5.10
4.50
2058
12.24
12.65
0.41
100
35
11.70
-2,417
-0.74
5.10
4.40
2059
12.18
12.75
0.57
100
35
11.80
-2,513
-0.78
5.10
4.50
2060
12.13
12.65
0.53
100
35
11.70
-2,613
-0.82
5.10
4.40
2061
12.08
12.66
0.58
100
35
11.70
-2,718
-0.86
5.10
4.40
2062
12.04
12.76
0.72
100
35
11.80
-2,830
-0.90
5.10
4.50
2063
12.01
12.67
0.66
100
35
11.70
-2,952
-0.93
5.10
4.40
2064
11.98
12.77
0.79
100
35
11.80
-3,082
-0.96
5.10
4.50
2065
11.96
12.67
0.72
100
35
11.70
-3,219
-0.99
5.10
4.40
2066
11.95
12.78
0.83
100
35
11.80
-3,366
-1.02
5.10
4.50
2067
11.94
12.78
0.84
100
35
11.80
-3,524
-1.05
5.10
4.50
2068
11.94
12.79
0.84
100
35
11.80
-3,694
-1.07
5.10
4.50
2069
11.95
12.89
0.94
100
35
11.90
-3,874
-1.09
5.10
4.60
2070
11.97
12.90
0.93
100
35
11.90
-4,067
-1.11
5.10
4.60
2071
11.98
12.90
0.92
100
35
11.90
-4,271
-1.13
5.10
4.60
2072
12.01
12.90
0.90
100
35
11.90
-4,488
-1.15
5.10
4.60
2073
12.03
13.11
1.08
100
35
12.10
-4,718
-1.16
5.10
4.80
2074
12.06
13.01
0.95
100
35
12.00
-4,962
-1.17
5.10
4.70
2075
12.10
13.12
1.02
100
35
12.10
-5,219
-1.19
5.10
4.80
2076
12.13
13.12
0.99
100
35
12.10
-5,491
-1.20
5.10
4.80
2077
12.17
13.22
1.06
100
35
12.20
-5,777
-1.21
5.10
4.90
2078
12.21
13.23
1.02
100
35
12.20
-6,079
-1.22
5.10
4.90
 
Summarized
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cost
Rate
OASDI
 
Income
Rate
OASDI
 
Actuarial
Balance
OASDI
 
Change in
Actuarial
Balance
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
-2077
12.95
12.33
-0.62
1.30
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Net of Benefit Offset.
2 Including borrowing from Individual Accounts in Form of Social Security Transition Bonds.
3 Excluding reinvestment of interest in Social Security Transition Bonds.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report.
 
Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
September 9, 2003

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