Projected Effects of a Proposal to Credit Earnings to Caregivers' Records

Details: Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age 6

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 14% 0% 0%
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 28% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 27% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 29% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 15% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 11% 0% 0%
High school 0% 13% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 26% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 12% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 14% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 18% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 14% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 27% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 27% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 31% 0% 0%
Male 0% 22% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 41% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 20% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 35% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 33% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 22% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 43% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 35% 0% 0%
70–79 1% 30% 0% 0%
80–89 1% 21% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 31% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 25% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 18% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 24% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 16% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 18% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 24% 0% 0%
High school 1% 33% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 50% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 25% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 61% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 12% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 17% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 24% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 32% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 48% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 27% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 13% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 9% 40% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 36% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 28% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 33% 0% 0%
Male 0% 24% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 34% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 23% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 42% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 35% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 24% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 43% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 35% 0% 0%
70–79 1% 30% 0% 0%
80–89 1% 23% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 17% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 32% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 27% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 25% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 24% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 18% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 20% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 27% 0% 0%
High school 1% 35% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 47% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 27% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 66% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 13% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 19% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 26% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 51% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 28% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 21% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 9% 43% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 36% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 20% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 19% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 17% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 19% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 22% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 17% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 20% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 19% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 20% 0% 0%
Male 0% 18% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 31% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 26% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 15% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 33% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 1% 25% 0% 0%
70–79 1% 22% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 14% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 21% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 19% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 14% 0% 0%
Never married 1% 18% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 12% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 17% 0% 0%
High school 1% 24% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 40% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 18% 0% 0%
In poverty 4% 52% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 16% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 28% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 44% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 20% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 23% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 30% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 24% 0% 0%
Male 0% 19% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 27% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 32% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 26% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 18% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 34% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 26% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 23% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 18% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 12% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 24% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 21% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 20% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 19% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0%
High school 0% 28% 0% 0%
Less than high school 1% 39% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 21% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 61% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 18% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 31% 0% 0%
Lowest 1% 50% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 22% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 17% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 29% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 28% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,137 -100 -3%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,732 -54 -3%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,405 -45 -3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 550 -19 -3%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,757 -47 -2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 8% 636 612 -23 -3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 228 217 -10 -4%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,393 -79 -3%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 744 -20 -2%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,413 -72 -4%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,290 -27 -2%
80–89 3% 3% 381 380 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 455 -14 -3%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,146 -61 -5%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 725 -14 -2%
Never married 16% 16% 821 811 -9 -1%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 91 -5 -5%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 261 -2 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 588 -38 -6%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,501 -33 -2%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 696 -21 -2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 97% 3,237 3,137 -100 -3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,182 -69 -3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 564 -12 -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 135 -9 -6%
Disabled worker only 10% 9% 263 255 -8 -3%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 3% 3,309 2,754 -554 -16%
Sex
Female 4% 3% 1,862 1,542 -320 -17%
Male 4% 3% 1,447 1,212 -234 -16%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 897 748 -148 -16%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 2% 1,472 1,272 -199 -13%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 6% 679 532 -146 -21%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 261 201 -59 -22%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 1,884 -376 -16%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 870 -178 -17%
Age
60–69 5% 4% 1,277 1,046 -230 -18%
70–79 4% 3% 1,105 892 -212 -19%
80–89 3% 3% 734 629 -104 -14%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 186 -6 -3%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 345 -111 -24%
Divorced 6% 5% 948 761 -187 -19%
Widowed 5% 4% 750 653 -97 -12%
Never married 12% 10% 1,154 995 -158 -13%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 63 -27 -30%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 232 -48 -17%
Associate 3% 2% 555 470 -85 -15%
High school 6% 5% 1,549 1,283 -266 -17%
Less than high school 11% 9% 834 707 -126 -15%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 3% 2,500 2,088 -412 -16%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 440 -58 -11%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 81 -17 -17%
Disabled worker only 6% 4% 212 145 -66 -31%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 1,703 -721 -29%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,304 925 -378 -29%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 778 -342 -30%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 2% 769 550 -219 -28%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 1% 1,009 753 -256 -25%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 392 251 -141 -35%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 2% 254 150 -104 -40%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,154 -432 -27%
Other countries 4% 3% 839 549 -289 -34%
Age
60–69 3% 2% 795 541 -253 -31%
70–79 3% 2% 906 634 -272 -30%
80–89 3% 2% 585 422 -162 -27%
90 or older 2% 1% 139 107 -32 -23%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 292 190 -102 -34%
Divorced 3% 2% 613 406 -206 -33%
Widowed 3% 2% 473 298 -174 -36%
Never married 6% 5% 1,046 809 -237 -22%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 114 -41 -26%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 149 -69 -31%
Associate 2% 1% 405 296 -108 -26%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 746 -287 -27%
Less than high school 6% 4% 613 399 -214 -34%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 22
In poverty 100% 69% 2,425 1,681 -743 -30%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 2% 1,958 1,416 -542 -27%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 206 -114 -35%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 41 28 -12 -29%
Disabled worker only 3% 1% 105 53 -52 -49%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 23% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 29% 0% 0%
Male 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 18% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 17% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 19% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 21% 0% 0%
High school 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 31% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 45% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 30% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 46% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 22% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 42% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 26% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 28% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 39% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 12% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 12% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 15% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 35% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0%
Lowest 0% 36% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 36% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 27% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 42% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 28% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 20% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 29% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 34% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 58% 0%
Lowest 0% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 12% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 58% 0%
Lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 15% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 36% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 56% 0%
Lowest 0% 37% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 31% 1% -8% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 43% 1% -12% 0% 0%
Male 20% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 47% 1% -11% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 27% 1% -7% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 30% 1% -7% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 3% -10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 27% 1% -7% 0% 0%
Other countries 51% 2% -12% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 25% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 28% 1% -7% 0% 0%
Associate 30% 1% -8% 0% 0%
High school 32% 1% -8% 0% 0%
Less than high school 47% 1% -12% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 33% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 59% 2% -9% -2% 0%
Lowest 50% 1% -22% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 31% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 60% 2% -9% -2% 0%
Lowest 51% 1% -21% -2% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 21% 1% -4% 0% 0%
Middle 30% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Second lowest 46% 2% -10% 0% 0%
Lowest 48% 2% -13% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 34% 1% -10% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 44% 1% -13% 0% 0%
Male 24% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 35% 1% -11% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 46% 1% -11% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 2% -10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 32% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Other countries 43% 2% -12% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 24% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Bachelor 28% 1% -8% 0% 0%
Associate 33% 1% -8% 0% 0%
High school 40% 1% -11% 0% 0%
Less than high school 44% 2% -12% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 33% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 63% 2% -10% -2% 0%
Lowest 57% 2% -23% -4% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 33% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 61% 2% -10% -2% 0%
Lowest 58% 2% -22% -5% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 19% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 35% 1% -7% 0% 0%
Second lowest 52% 2% -11% -1% 0%
Lowest 55% 2% -15% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 34% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 43% 1% -13% 0% 0%
Male 24% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 32% 1% -10% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 31% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 46% 2% -10% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 37% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 32% 1% -9% 0% 0%
Other countries 40% 2% -11% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 26% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Bachelor 26% 1% -8% 0% 0%
Associate 33% 1% -8% 0% 0%
High school 39% 1% -10% 0% 0%
Less than high school 43% 1% -13% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 33% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 63% 2% -10% -3% 0%
Lowest 57% 2% -24% -4% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 12% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 32% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Second lowest 62% 2% -10% -2% 0%
Lowest 58% 2% -23% -5% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 20% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 33% 1% -6% 0% 0%
Second lowest 53% 2% -11% -1% 0%
Lowest 55% 2% -15% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.