You are here: Social Security Administration > Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis > Policy Option Projections

Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase Benefits for Older Beneficiaries

Details: Primary insurance amount (PIA) increase is phased-in starting at 81 and by 85 is equal to 5 percent of the average retired-worker PIA in the year the beneficiary turns 80

Table user guide | Projection methodology | All options comparison | Related research

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
Male 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 12% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Other countries 0% 15% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 77% 0% 2% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 3% 4% 8%
Marital status
Married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Widowed 0% 43% 0% 0% 5%
Never married 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%
Associate 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
High school 0% 23% 0% 0% 4%
Less than high school 0% 19% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
In poverty 0% 13% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 26% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Second lowest 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Lowest 0% 20% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 43% 0% 0% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 26% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 31% 0% 0% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 35% 0% 0% 4%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 4%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 22% 0% 0% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 35% 0% 0% 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 32% 0% 0% 4%
Other countries 0% 28% 0% 0% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 80% 0% 3% 6%
90 or older 0% 99% 3% 3% 7%
Marital status
Married 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Widowed 0% 59% 0% 2% 5%
Never married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 33% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 36% 0% 0% 4%
Associate 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
High school 0% 32% 0% 0% 5%
Less than high school 0% 20% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 31% 0% 0% 4%
In poverty 0% 26% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 33% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 30% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 4%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 28% 0% 0% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 57% 0% 2% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 26% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 33% 0% 0% 5%
Male 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 23% 0% 0% 5%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 33% 0% 0% 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Other countries 0% 29% 0% 0% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 79% 0% 3% 6%
90 or older 0% 99% 2% 3% 7%
Marital status
Married 0% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 27% 0% 0% 4%
Widowed 0% 61% 0% 2% 6%
Never married 0% 22% 0% 0% 4%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 32% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 37% 0% 0% 4%
Associate 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
High school 0% 26% 0% 0% 5%
Less than high school 0% 21% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
In poverty 0% 28% 0% 0% 13%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
Second lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 5%
Lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 28% 0% 0% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 51% 0% 1% 6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 37% 0% 0% 2%
90 or older 0% 60% 0% 1% 4%
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 26% 0% 0% 2%
Never married 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
High school 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Less than high school 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 29% 0% 0% 2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Male 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 50% 0% 1% 3%
90 or older 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
Marital status
Married 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 37% 0% 0% 3%
Never married 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Less than high school 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 0% 20% 0% 0% 6%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 26% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 32% 0% 0% 2%
Lowest 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 17% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 39% 0% 0% 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 51% 0% 1% 4%
90 or older 0% 67% 0% 1% 4%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 42% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 23% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Less than high school 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 0% 23% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 26% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 3%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 39% 0% 0% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,177 -59 -1%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,748 -39 -2%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,429 -20 -1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 553 -16 -2%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,765 -38 -2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 631 -5 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,428 -44 -1%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 749 -15 -2%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,486 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,311 -6 0%
80–89 3% 2% 381 338 -42 -11%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 43 -10 -19%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 467 -1 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,189 -17 -1%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 704 -35 -4%
Never married 16% 16% 821 816 -4 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 94 -2 -2%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 255 -7 -2%
Associate 4% 4% 626 615 -11 -1%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,506 -27 -1%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 706 -11 -1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 98% 3,237 3,177 -59 -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,223 -28 -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 546 -31 -5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,133 -176 -5%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,769 -93 -5%
Male 4% 3% 1,447 1,364 -82 -5%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 897 851 -46 -5%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,410 -62 -4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 7% 679 646 -32 -4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 3% 261 227 -34 -13%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,163 -97 -4%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 970 -78 -7%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,275 -1 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,104 -1 0%
80–89 3% 3% 734 619 -115 -15%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 135 -58 -30%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 455 -1 0%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 892 -55 -5%
Widowed 5% 4% 750 676 -74 -9%
Never married 12% 11% 1,154 1,109 -44 -3%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 85 -5 -6%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 258 -22 -7%
Associate 3% 3% 555 519 -35 -6%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,471 -78 -5%
Less than high school 11% 10% 834 800 -33 -4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 95% 3,309 3,133 -176 -5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,377 -123 -4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 445 -52 -10%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 99 0 0%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,262 -162 -6%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,304 1,185 -118 -9%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,077 -44 -3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 712 -57 -7%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 947 -62 -6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 372 -20 -5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 232 -22 -8%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,486 -100 -6%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 776 -62 -7%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 795 0 0%
70–79 3% 3% 906 901 -5 0%
80–89 3% 2% 585 472 -113 -19%
90 or older 2% 1% 139 95 -43 -31%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 285 -7 -2%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 583 -30 -4%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 406 -66 -14%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 989 -57 -5%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 152 -3 -2%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 195 -23 -10%
Associate 2% 2% 405 377 -27 -6%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 972 -60 -5%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 565 -47 -7%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 93% 2,425 2,262 -162 -6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,846 -112 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 271 -50 -15%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 41 0 0%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 5% 127% 397% 5% 128% 403%
Sex
Female 0% 46% 0% 0% 2% 23% 159% 562% 23% 161% 570%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 1% 0% 105% 239% 0% 105% 242%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 141% 506% 0% 142% 517%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 14% 122% 359% 14% 124% 365%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 28% 0% 0% 2% 0% 131% 410% 0% 132% 411%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 132% 493% 0% 133% 502%
Country of birth
United States 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 12% 123% 363% 12% 124% 368%
Other countries 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 0% 144% 525% 0% 145% 532%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 45% 0% 0% 1% 24% 113% 245% 24% 114% 247%
Bachelor 0% 43% 0% 0% 2% 25% 120% 324% 25% 121% 328%
Associate 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 16% 127% 340% 16% 128% 345%
High school 0% 34% 0% 0% 2% 0% 133% 475% 0% 134% 480%
Less than high school 0% 26% 0% 0% 2% 0% 141% 718% 0% 142% 719%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 34% 0% 0% 1% 36% 93% 136% 36% 94% 138%
Second highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 21% 118% 175% 21% 119% 178%
Middle 0% 40% 0% 0% 2% 10% 140% 234% 10% 142% 237%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 23% 205% 444% 23% 208% 449%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 3% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 231% 1,382%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 36% 0% 0% 1% 40% 94% 134% 40% 95% 136%
Second highest 0% 39% 0% 0% 1% 23% 118% 173% 23% 119% 175%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 16% 141% 235% 16% 142% 238%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 18% 193% 403% 18% 195% 406%
Lowest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 275% 1,408%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 47% 101% 169% 47% 102% 171%
Second highest 0% 40% 0% 0% 1% 33% 118% 237% 33% 120% 241%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 15% 136% 314% 15% 137% 320%
Second lowest 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 9% 165% 490% 9% 167% 496%
Lowest 0% 24% 0% 0% 3% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 184% 1,028%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 119% 375% 0% 120% 380%
Sex
Female 0% 43% 0% 0% 2% 0% 143% 532% 0% 144% 537%
Male 0% 28% 0% 0% 1% 0% 101% 258% 0% 102% 262%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 34% 0% 0% 2% 0% 128% 410% 0% 129% 419%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 14% 118% 372% 14% 119% 378%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0% 1% 0% 111% 323% 0% 113% 329%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 0% 106% 410% 0% 107% 420%
Country of birth
United States 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 7% 118% 342% 7% 119% 348%
Other countries 0% 33% 0% 0% 2% 0% 121% 521% 0% 122% 534%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 21% 105% 271% 21% 106% 276%
Bachelor 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 5% 107% 291% 5% 108% 297%
Associate 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 120% 329% 0% 121% 336%
High school 0% 32% 0% 0% 2% 0% 130% 483% 0% 132% 490%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0% 2% 0% 126% 612% 0% 127% 617%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 35% 0% 0% 1% 37% 87% 124% 37% 88% 126%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 34% 117% 176% 34% 118% 179%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 28% 145% 258% 28% 146% 261%
Second lowest 0% 34% 0% 0% 2% 0% 204% 522% 0% 207% 525%
Lowest 0% 24% 0% 0% 4% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 123% 1,832%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 37% 0% 0% 1% 40% 88% 125% 40% 88% 126%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 36% 117% 178% 36% 118% 182%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 29% 144% 261% 29% 146% 264%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 197% 467% 0% 200% 472%
Lowest 0% 21% 0% 0% 4% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 121% 1,935%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 39% 0% 0% 1% 42% 90% 149% 42% 91% 151%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 43% 119% 247% 43% 121% 249%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0% 2% 31% 139% 330% 31% 141% 333%
Second lowest 0% 34% 0% 0% 2% 7% 176% 565% 7% 177% 567%
Lowest 0% 18% 0% 0% 4% 0% 66% 922% 0% 66% 922%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 116% 343% 0% 117% 349%
Sex
Female 0% 46% 0% 1% 2% 0% 137% 486% 0% 139% 495%
Male 0% 33% 0% 0% 2% 0% 99% 245% 0% 100% 249%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 0% 124% 369% 0% 125% 381%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 42% 0% 0% 2% 17% 115% 338% 17% 116% 345%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 29% 0% 0% 2% 0% 112% 306% 0% 113% 308%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 42% 0% 1% 2% 0% 100% 327% 0% 101% 332%
Country of birth
United States 0% 40% 0% 0% 2% 11% 116% 318% 11% 117% 324%
Other countries 0% 37% 0% 0% 3% 0% 116% 475% 0% 117% 485%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 49% 0% 1% 2% 25% 106% 255% 25% 107% 261%
Bachelor 0% 45% 0% 0% 2% 8% 103% 272% 8% 104% 277%
Associate 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 0% 118% 309% 0% 119% 316%
High school 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 0% 124% 413% 0% 125% 418%
Less than high school 0% 29% 0% 0% 2% 0% 127% 547% 0% 128% 555%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 39% 85% 121% 39% 85% 123%
Second highest 0% 48% 0% 0% 2% 40% 114% 170% 40% 116% 174%
Middle 0% 45% 0% 0% 2% 29% 138% 246% 29% 140% 249%
Second lowest 0% 37% 0% 0% 3% 11% 189% 452% 11% 191% 457%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0% 4% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 129% 1,559%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 43% 0% 0% 1% 41% 85% 121% 41% 86% 123%
Second highest 0% 47% 0% 0% 2% 41% 116% 173% 41% 117% 175%
Middle 0% 46% 0% 0% 2% 31% 139% 254% 31% 141% 259%
Second lowest 0% 37% 0% 0% 3% 13% 183% 414% 13% 185% 421%
Lowest 0% 24% 0% 0% 4% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 126% 1,591%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 45% 0% 0% 1% 44% 87% 139% 44% 88% 141%
Second highest 0% 47% 0% 0% 2% 45% 117% 231% 45% 118% 235%
Middle 0% 45% 0% 0% 2% 34% 136% 307% 34% 138% 309%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 3% 12% 167% 512% 12% 170% 517%
Lowest 0% 21% 0% 0% 4% 0% 89% 792% 0% 89% 794%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 79% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 84% 28% 50% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 43% 74% 23% 43% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 85% 28% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 48% 90% 24% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 75% 23% 44% 75%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 71% 21% 41% 71%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 74% 24% 45% 74%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 48% 81% 27% 48% 81%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 56% 90% 33% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 31% 47% 17% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 38% 56% 24% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 43% 63% 29% 43% 63%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 38% 51% 77%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 53% 70% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 50% 16% 33% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 37% 57% 23% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 43% 63% 31% 43% 63%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 37% 50% 78%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 52% 68% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 36% 53% 18% 36% 53%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 62% 22% 38% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 43% 69% 28% 43% 69%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 82% 33% 50% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 46% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 85% 24% 47% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 73% 22% 43% 73%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 81% 23% 45% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 83% 26% 51% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 46% 90% 22% 46% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 46% 81%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 54% 90% 27% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 75% 21% 42% 75%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 43% 82% 21% 43% 82%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 89% 28% 51% 89%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 31% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 16% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 65% 29% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 41% 55% 84%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 135% 58% 74% 135%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 49% 16% 33% 49%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 66% 30% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 54% 85% 39% 54% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 127% 57% 73% 127%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 35% 52% 17% 35% 52%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 39% 62% 21% 39% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 44% 73% 27% 44% 73%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 88% 35% 53% 88%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 108% 50% 67% 108%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 48% 84% 24% 48% 84%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 44% 73% 22% 44% 73%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 88% 27% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 46% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 84% 26% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 84% 22% 45% 84%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 81% 23% 47% 81%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 43% 80% 21% 43% 80%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 79%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 47% 77% 25% 47% 77%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 88% 28% 50% 88%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 31% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 41% 55% 84%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 128% 58% 74% 128%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 33% 49% 16% 33% 49%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 58% 23% 39% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 83% 40% 54% 83%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 122% 57% 73% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 63% 22% 40% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 53% 88% 37% 53% 88%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 102% 50% 67% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B6.3.