Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce Marriage Duration Requirement for
Divorced Spousal Benefits:

Details: Allow divorced spouses who were married at least 5 years to receive reduced benefits

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,100 -137 -4%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 1,787 1,669 -118 -6%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,431 -19 -1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 565 -5 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,698 -106 -5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 8% 636 614 -22 -3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 228 224 -3 -1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,348 -123 -5%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 752 -13 -1%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,450 -35 -2%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,236 -81 -6%
80–89 3% 2% 381 361 -19 -5%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 466 -3 0%
Divorced 9% 8% 1,207 1,079 -127 -10%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 733 -6 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 91 -5 -5%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 250 -13 -5%
Associate 4% 4% 626 585 -41 -6%
High school 6% 5% 1,534 1,471 -62 -4%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 702 -14 -2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 96% 3,237 3,100 -137 -4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,134 -117 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 566 -11 -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 138 -6 -4%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 262 -1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,208 -100 -3%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,777 -85 -4%
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,431 -15 -1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 884 -12 -1%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,406 -66 -4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 659 -19 -2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 259 -2 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,174 -86 -3%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 1,035 -13 -1%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,262 -14 -1%
70–79 4% 3% 1,105 1,066 -38 -3%
80–89 3% 3% 734 703 -31 -4%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 177 -16 -8%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 457 0 0%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 849 -98 -10%
Widowed 5% 5% 750 748 -1 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,154 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 86 -4 -4%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 268 -12 -4%
Associate 3% 3% 555 536 -18 -3%
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,494 -55 -3%
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 825 -8 -1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 97% 3,309 3,208 -100 -3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,406 -94 -3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 496 -2 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 95 -3 -3%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,315 -109 -4%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,228 -75 -5%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,087 -34 -3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 746 -23 -3%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 946 -63 -6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 374 -17 -4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 249 -4 -1%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,498 -87 -5%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 817 -21 -2%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 761 -33 -4%
70–79 3% 2% 906 861 -44 -4%
80–89 3% 2% 585 562 -22 -3%
90 or older 2% 2% 139 131 -8 -5%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 290 -1 0%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 512 -101 -16%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 467 -6 -1%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,046 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 145 -10 -7%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 213 -5 -2%
Associate 2% 2% 405 373 -31 -7%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 985 -48 -4%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 600 -12 -2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0
In poverty 100% 95% 2,425 2,315 -109 -4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,859 -99 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 313 -8 -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 41 0 0%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 103 -2 -1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate
Bachelor
Associate
High school
Less than high school
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.