Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce Spousal Benefits

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 33% 0% -10% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 12% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 12% 0% -10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 13% 0% -18% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 14% 0% -13% 0% 0%
Divorced 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 13% 0% -18% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 92% 0% -34% -23% -2%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 11% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 14% 0% -32% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 14% 0% -24% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 12% 0% -25% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 7% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 98% 0% -34% -33% -6%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 18% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 16% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 22% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 17% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 13% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 59% 2% -6% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 12% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 14% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 19% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 15% 0% -3% 0% 0%
80–89 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 26% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 17% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 16% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 14% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 70% 2% -8% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,258 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,795 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,462 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 578
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,816 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 228 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,484 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 773
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,494 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,330 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 484
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,213 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 821 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 264 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,547 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 724 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,266 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 151
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,435
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,940
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,495
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 930
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,539
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 690
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 276
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,338
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,096
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,304
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,187
80–89 3% 4% 734 748
90 or older 3% 3% 193 195
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 520
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,011
Widowed 5% 5% 750 750 0 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,154 1,154 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 96
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 311
Associate 3% 3% 555 565
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,594
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 870
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 128
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,555
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 500 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 167
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,511
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,358
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,153
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 796
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,053
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 396
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 266
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,634
Other countries 4% 4% 839 877
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 813
70–79 3% 3% 906 953
80–89 3% 3% 585 604
90 or older 2% 2% 139 141
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 352
Divorced 3% 3% 613 638
Widowed 3% 3% 473 475 0%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 1,046 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 158
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 230
Associate 2% 2% 405 425
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,069
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 630
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 86
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,425 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,018
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 321 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 67
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 14% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 11% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 12% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 9% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 10% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 14% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 23% 0% -9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 12% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 24% 0% -9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 11% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 15% 0% -8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 11% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 12% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 14% 0% -16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 11% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 13% 0% -11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 15% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 25% 0% -34% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 15% 0% -6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 25% 0% -34% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 15% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 14% 0% -14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 10% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 13% 0% -11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 15% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 14% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 26% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 11% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -8% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 10% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.