You are here: Social Security Administration > Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis > Population Projection: Lifetime Low Earners in 2050

Population Projections

  1. American
    Indians and
    Alaska Natives
  2. Divorced
    Spousal
    Beneficiaries
  3. Early
    Eligibility Age
    Beneficiaries
  4.  Lifetime 
    Low
    Earners

  5.  Oldest 
    Old
  6.  Sporadic 
    Low
    Earners
  7. Spousal-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  8. Survivor-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  9. Women
    & Dual
    Entitlement

Lifetime Low Earners in 2050

Methodology »
Released: March 2015
Next expected update: 2020

DEFINITION: We are defining a lifetime low earner as a Social Security beneficiary aged 60 or older who has at least 30 years of work with each year's earnings at or above four times the amount needed for one Social Security quarterly credit and less than half of the national average wage index.

In 2050, we project that:

  • More than 3 percent of beneficiaries aged 60 or older will be lifetime low earners.
  • More lifetime low earners will be women and have a high-school education or less compared with all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
  • Fewer lifetime low earners will be disabled compared with all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
  • More than half of lifetime low earners will be in the lowest paying average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) quintile. a
  • Nearly 5 percent of lifetime low earners will have household incomes below 100 percent of poverty.
Population Characteristics
Percentage with characteristic
Pie charts. 2,725,116 beneficiaries are lifetime low earners. 76% of lifetime low earners are women; 66% have a high school education or less, and 8% are disabled. 87,562,601 beneficiaries are aged 60 or older. 53% of beneficiaries aged 60 or older are women; 42% have a high school education or less, and 13% are disabled.
Paying AIME Quintile
Percentage of beneficiaries in quintile
Bar chart. 61% of lifetime low earners are in the lowest paying AIME quintile. 13% are in the second lowest. 9% are in the middle. 9% are in the second highest. And 7% are in the highest quintile.
Poverty Rates
Percentage below 100 percent of poverty
Bar chart. Lifetime low earners have a 4.9% poverty rate under scheduled benefits and 14.1% poverty rate under payable benefits. Beneficiaries aged 60 or older have a 3.5% poverty rate under scheduled benefits and 7.0% poverty rate under payable benefits.
a. The paying AIME is the AIME of the higher-earning spouse if an individual receives a spousal or survivor benefit or the individual's own AIME if they only receive their own work benefit
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 7 (MINT7) microsimulation model using 2012 Trustees Report assumptions.