Social Security

Sporadic Low Earners in 2050

Methodology »
Released: March 2015
Next expected update: 2021

DEFINITION: In contrast to a lifetime low earner, a sporadic low earner is a Social Security beneficiary aged 60 or older who:

• is fully insured by age 61;
• has at least 30 years of either no covered earnings or covered earnings at less than half the average wage;
• has more than five years with zero earnings; and
• was never disabled.

In 2050, we project that:

• Six percent (5 million) of all beneficiaries aged 60 or older will be sporadic low earners.
• Forty percent (2 million) of sporadic low earners will have earnings from non-covered work.
• Of all sporadic low earners, half (2.5 million) will be native born.
• Almost all immigrant sporadic low earners will arrive in the U.S. before age 50.
• The poverty rate will be significantly higher for sporadic low earners compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
• The median benefit for sporadic low earners will be 43 percent lower for women and 60 percent lower for men compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.